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☆ Higher for longer rates may mean lower for longer stock multiples, and stock prices
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Earnings estimates did not suddenly rise dramatically. Earnings estimates for the S & P 500 this year is $243, according to LSEG. The multiple is an expression of how much investors are willing to pay for, say, $1 of future earnings. The market is saying it is willing to pay $10 for $1 in future earnings. And if that happens, earnings estimates will decline along with the multiple.

Persons: Jack Bogle, Bogle, depresses, that's Organizations: Vanguard, Funds

☆ Here’s what the S&P 500’s summer hot streak can teach us about the late 2023 rally and its staying power
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-02 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

In the final run-up to the late-July peak in stocks this column surveyed the rally , and asked, "Enough for now? .SPX YTD line The S & P 500's year-to-date performance Yes, the market is overbought by various technical measures. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo and Barclays are seeing the S & P 500 as dead money next year, at best. The virtues of owning the S & P 500 passively have always been low cost, tax efficiency, low turnover and broad exposure to the asset class. While 2021 was a Nasdaq 100 melt-up year, 2022 was the mirror image: Big Tech got blasted and the equal-weight S & P 500 held up better.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Jack Bogle, Alan Greenspan's Organizations: Federal, Deutsche, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, Barclays, Hamas, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Big Tech, matchless, Treasury Locations: Wells Fargo, Israel

With the meme-stock rally in the rearview mirror and interest rates surging, individual investors are rediscovering the philosophy made famous by Vanguard's founder, Jack Bogle. Fans call themselves "Bogleheads," and the strategy "lazy" investing. Dan Griffin, a self-proclaimed Boglehead based in Florida, said he watched the meme stock rally in amusement. The current market condition is proof that his "tortoise" investing approach is the right one to building long-term wealth, he said. "The meme stock phenomenon seemed so focused on being incredibly plugged into your portfolio and monitoring your investments — I see the Bogleheads' philosophy as being antithetical to all of that."

Persons: Jack Bogle, Dan Griffin, Boglehead, Griffin, Christine Benz, Morningstar Organizations: GameStop, CNBC Locations: Florida

☆ A stock trader who consistently beats the S&P 500 and returned 52% in his best year shares 4 of his favorite investing books
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Kathleen Elkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Erik Smolinski had been self-educating on finance since high school, when one of his teachers recommended he look into investing. He went to the school library, picked up a couple of books, and started learning about basic investing concepts. He's read a handful of investing books and shared four of his top picks with Insider. He's a "big fan" of the author, Lawrence McMillan, who has years of experience trading options. Smolinski also likes anything by the author Euan Sinclair, who has decades of professional options trading experience and a PhD in theoretical physics.

Persons: Erik Smolinski, Smolinski, He's, Lawrence McMillan, Richer, William Green, Charlie Munger, Jack Bogle, Jack Schwager, Stan Weinstein, it's, Euan Sinclair, Warren Buffett's, Warren Buffett, There's Organizations: William Green Financial, Top Locations: Bull

☆ The first ETF is 30 years old this week. It launched a revolution in low-cost investing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Thirty years ago this week, State Street Global Advisors launched the Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipt (SPY), the first U.S.-based Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), which tracked the S&P 500. How ETFs differ from mutual fundsHolding an investment in an ETF structure has many advantages over a mutual fund. The reason was mutual funds and broker-dealers quickly realized there was little money in the product. On November 18, 2004, the StreetTracks Gold Shares (now called SPDR Gold Shares , symbol GLD) went public. CNBC's Bob Pisani on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in 2004 covering the launch of the StreetTRACKS Gold Shares ETF, or GLD, now known as the SPDR Gold Trust.

☆ Retail investors have sold all of the stocks they bought during the pandemic trading boom
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Retail investors have sold all of the stock they bought during the COVID-19 trading boom, according to Goldman Sachs. "Selling over the past 11 months has completely reversed all the net buying in single stocks from 2019 to 2021," Goldman said. As for what retail investors are still holding on to, it's technology and consumer discretionary names, according to the note. Meanwhile, retail investors were net sellers of healthcare and utility stocks. Goldman noted that while they believe its data is an accurate representation of retail investors that buy single stocks, it doesn't encapsulate retail buy-and-hold investors that are primarily trading ETFs for their allocation to equities.

☆ Burton Malkiel on why his classic investment book, 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street,' is relevant 50 years later
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

You recommended index funds 50 years ago even before index funds existed. Standard & Poor's publishes annual reports showing how actively managed funds compare with index funds. Random Walk means that the history of past stock market prices cannot be used to predict the future. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), most of which are tied to index funds, are continuing to rake in money. This suggests that returns over the next decade are likely to be below the 9%-10% long-run historical stock market returns.

☆ Two classic books on long-term investing are out in new editions
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Two classic books on long-term investing are out in new editions. In December, the Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel published a new (6th) edition of his classic, Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies. Like Malkiel, Ellis urged investors to diversify into low-cost index fund investing, which was a radical idea because there were no low-cost index funds at the time! The market eventually caught up with Malkiel, Siegel, Ellis and Bogle. Investors now had not just an index fund, they had a low-cost, tax-efficient wrapper they could buy it in.

☆ Bob Pisani: Heeding the investment wisdom of Jack Bogle starts with keeping it simple
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

But selling the public on just buying an index fund that mimicked the S&P 500 was a tough sell. Keep costs low by owning index funds, or at least low-cost actively managed funds. He made a case for owning a single balanced fund (65/35 stocks/bonds) and said it could capture 97% of total market returns. Having too many funds (Bogle believed no more than four or five were necessary) would result in over-diversification. The total portfolio would come to resemble an index fund, but would likely incur higher costs.

☆ Stay the course? Bear market reminders for long-term investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 is down 22% since the start of 2022, but there are signs that the bulls will overtake the bears in the new year. Davi said that while many investors have taken on bearish strategies this year, Astoria positioned itself defensively going into 2022 with inflation-fighting strategies. "Seventy-two percent of the time the S&P 500 is higher year over year since the 1920s." Pisani added more of Bogle's market statistics, citing the 56% of the time the index is up 10% year over year. "But I think inflation is what got us in this bear market recession."

☆ History says doing nothing and avoiding rush to cash will eventually boost returns
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"Investors are seeking shelter in cash amid a volatile market and fears of a recession," Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management said in a note to clients Tuesday morning. Haefele reminds everyone about the value of staying invested and the folly of market timing. Not being in the market on the 5 best days since 1970 reduces your return from $138,908 to $90,171. The takeaway: If you're not in the market on the most important up days, your returns are markedly lower. The message: The best strategy would be to determine a long-term plan and stick with it, and ignore the urge to "do something."

☆ Jeremy Siegel says you should still bet on stocks for the long run as market will overcome inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-30 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

It's been eight years since the last edition of "Stocks For the Long Run." I think the key takeaway here is that in the long run stocks do tend to overcome inflation. And secondly, as you point out, not only do stocks tend to overcome inflation in the long run, they completely overcome inflation. Remember that is 4% before inflation, take that and compare it with the long run real return on stocks, which is 6.7% after inflation. You should own your home… But don't forget the real estate market and all the commercial real estate.

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